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Understanding the difference between real and fake trends can be crucial for success in the ever-evolving world of technology. Sam Altman, the CEO of OpenAI, provides a simple yet effective trick to distinguish between the two.
Photo: AP/Patrick Semansky
Identifying Real Trends
Real trends emerge when a new technology platform is not just adopted but loved by its early users. These early adopters use the product obsessively and passionately share their enthusiasm with friends. This intense usage and word-of-mouth promotion are key indicators of a genuine trend.
Example: The iPhone
When the iPhone first launched, many critics dismissed it because initial sales were modest, around one to two million units. However, for those who owned an iPhone, it quickly became indispensable. They used it for hours each day, integrating it into their daily lives, and enthusiastically recommended it to friends. This level of engagement and passion made it clear that the iPhone was more than just a passing fad; it was a transformative computing platform that would lead to the rise of mobile apps and spawn enormous businesses.
Spotting Fake Trends
In contrast, fake trends are characterized by a lack of sustained, enthusiastic use. People might buy the product, but they don't use it enough, indicating that the trend lacks genuine user engagement and staying power.
Example: Virtual Reality (VR)
As of August 2018, Altman cited VR as an example of a fake trend. Despite significant buzz and sales, most VR headset owners used their devices rarely, if at all. This lack of intense, regular usage among early adopters suggested that while VR had potential, it wasn't yet a real trend. The key takeaway is that widespread discussion and initial sales aren't enough; genuine trends require passionate, regular use by their early users.
Why It Matters
Understanding whether a trend is real or fake can guide investment decisions, strategic planning, and product development. Betting on real trends, like mobile apps during the iPhone's rise, can lead to significant opportunities and growth. On the other hand, investing in fake trends can result in wasted resources and missed opportunities.
Conclusion
Sam Altman's insight provides a valuable framework for evaluating new technology trends. By observing the behavior of early adopters and their level of engagement, you can distinguish between real and fake trends. Real trends are marked by obsessive use and enthusiastic recommendations, signaling a fundamental shift and long-term potential. In contrast, fake trends may garner initial interest but lack the sustained usage needed to drive lasting impact. So, next time you encounter a new tech craze, remember to look beyond the hype and focus on user behavior to determine its true potential.
Listen to Sam Altman:
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